{"id":10716,"date":"2023-08-31T15:15:58","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T15:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dsrc.haifa.ac.il\/?p=10716"},"modified":"2023-09-18T14:55:55","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T14:55:55","slug":"a-new-analysis-method-for-the-basketball-hot-hand-fallacy-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dsrc.haifa.ac.il\/?p=10716","title":{"rendered":"A new Analysis method for the basketball \u201cHot-Hand\u201d fallacy"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"10716\" class=\"elementor elementor-10716\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e2c2ef6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e2c2ef6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d0f2906\" data-id=\"d0f2906\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d56cb5c elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d56cb5c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;,&quot;_animation_mobile&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">A new Analysis method for the basketball \u201cHot-Hand\u201d fallacy\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d81fe17 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d81fe17\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2ed58e3\" data-id=\"2ed58e3\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3465297 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3465297\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;,&quot;_animation_mobile&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Netzer Bar Am &amp; Shuly Wintner<br>\nDepartment of Computer Science<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-570ebc7 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"570ebc7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b88aabd elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b88aabd\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b5ca55a\" data-id=\"b5ca55a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-c8a6d4f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c8a6d4f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-1705626\" data-id=\"1705626\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-90a2ff9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"90a2ff9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Statistics <br \/>Natural Language Processing<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-fcdddcf\" data-id=\"fcdddcf\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0138cad elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0138cad\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Digital Humanities<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-4e609b6\" data-id=\"4e609b6\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bab289e elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"bab289e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>PhD Grant 2021<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-26b1814 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"26b1814\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>A \u201chot-hand\u201d is a basketball fans widespread belief that states that a player who has a &#8220;hot hand&#8221; tends to hit a series of successful shots in a row. In a similar manner, many scientific experiments include a recurrent measurement of a Boolean property (i.e., whose value is either \u201cTrue\u201d or \u201cFalse\u201d). Such a repetitive measurement generates a series of Boolean values. In the basketball \u201chot-hand\u201d context, such an experiment means to write down the successful shots (true values) or misses out (false values) of a basketball player. In this blog post we suggest a new way to analyze a given Boolean sequence and infer if a \u201chot-hand\u201d phenomenon is supported by the data or is just a myth.<\/p><p>The traditional analysis for the \u201chot-hand\u201d is to create a two-by-two contingency matrix which counts the number of occurrences of True (hit) followed by a False (miss), True followed by True, False followed by True and False followed by False. A simple Chi-Square test for independence is sufficient to disprove the null-hypotheses (which states there is no dependence between the previous and next results). This analysis focuses only on short-term relations (the next shot only) and might miss a hidden long-term relationships or unexpected periodicity in the data.<\/p><p>In the following analysis method we suggest a new vantage point that focuses on the frequency of the lengths of subsequences of consecutive True values. The null hypotheses predicts an exponential relation between the length of the sub-sequence and the frequency (the longer the subsequence, the less frequent) on a log-log graph. Moreover, the coefficients of the graph can be extracted directly from the portion of true values in the measured sequence. Equipped with this known expected graph, we may compare it to the measured graph. A suggested interpretation of a \u201chot-hand\u201d on this log-log graph would be a linear line, which means a fat-tail distribution (an over-presence of long sequences in the data). A Chi-Square test can reject (or verify) such an hypothesis.<\/p><p>We developed this method for usage in our study of language mixing in computational linguistics. With this method of analysis we found unexpected phenomena of fat-tail\u00a0distribution of series in the data.<\/p><h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11013 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dsrc.haifa.ac.il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Netzer-300x144.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"144\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dsrc.haifa.ac.il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Netzer-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dsrc.haifa.ac.il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Netzer.jpg 599w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>Do chances of hitting the basket change after a successful shot?<\/h6><p>* Netzer Bar Am is a Student of Computational Linguistics at the University of Haifa<\/p><p>** Shuly Wintner is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Haifa<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3839ea6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3839ea6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4efc12b\" data-id=\"4efc12b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-152d16e elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"152d16e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Netzer Bar Am, Shuly Wintner<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":93,"featured_media":11013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_header_footer","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86,70,65,79,23,67],"tags":[42,40],"class_list":["post-10716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-86","category-digital-humanities","category-natural-language-processing","category-phd","category-research-blog","category-statistics","tag-natural-language-processing","tag-statistics","entry","has-media"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - 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